Humanity's Final Exam -- Projects

“The problem of how to transmit our ecological reasoning to those whom we wish to influence in what seems to us to be an ecologically good direction is itself an ecological problem”
– Gregory Bateson

This section lists a number of projects that I’d like to undertake (or see others undertake) to further develop the resources behind the site. Some of them are most strongly related to Understanding, some to Action; others have elements of both. Also, some are fairly tightly focused, while others could form the basis of whole disciplines of study and practice.

An important note here: while I’d like to participate in projects like these, or even drive them, I’m not an expert in any of the relevant areas. (For what it’s worth, my background and primary expertise is in software engineering.) Most of these projects would require the services of experts in several areas who’d be willing to collaborate across discipline boundaries.

Understanding the prospects for replacing fossil fuels by alternative energy sources

I’ve yet to find a good, comprehensive analysis of where a barrel of petroleum goes, i.e., what percentages for various fuels, for plastics, for fertilizers, etc. Until we get a comprehensive understanding of what we’re about to lose, it’s hard to say just how we might replace it. Similarly, I’ve yet to find a good, comprehensive overview of the currently available sustainable alternative energy sources (as well as those that can be reasonably expected in the near term): the expected yield, the ERoEI (ratio of energy returned to energy invested), the projected timeline and cost for full deployment, etc.

This project would seek to fill these gaps, and complete the picture by developing replacement scenarios, then evaluating them by feasibility, risks, gaps, etc. Some, perhaps all, scenarios will likely require at least a leveling off of population for sustainability; each scenario should include an estimate of the maximum and optimum population that could be sustained. (There’s clearly an interaction here with the Carrying Capacity project described below.)

The project should also consider technologies that, while not sustainable, could be useful in the near term, to ease the transition from our current situation to a sustainable future. These could include energy sources such as coal (if it can be made to be less polluting), or technologies that serve necessary functions with less energy than currently used.

Modeling human population dynamics

Note: this section needs revising; Google for "human population dynamics" and study the results, then consider what this project should do, or whether it's even needed.

A common assumption about human population in any given area is that it will always grow to the point of overcrowding and misery; that the only control is a die-off triggered by plague, war, famine, etc. (or possibly a draconian birth-control program of the kind attempted by China). This isn’t necessarily the case; there are species that, under typical circumstances, control their numbers to avoid overcrowding. Is Homo Sapiens such a species? (Or perhaps, could we be, given the right social structures?) There are some interesting indications; for example, the population in many first world countries is actually declining (leaving out the effects of immigration), and clearly not due to any disasters. Rather, it seems to be the effect of a large number of individual choices.

This project would examine this issue in detail, starting with the current understanding of population dynamics in non-human species and looking at the ways that it differs when the complexity of the human mind is taken into account.

Characterizing “human carrying capacity”

Also, need to Google for "human carrying capacity", and revise this section.

How many people can the earth sustain over long periods of time? It would be nice if we could come up with a number, even one approximate within a range of, say, 10%. In reality, the question involves a wide variety of considerations, e.g.: what’s the level of per capita consumption; what technologies will be in use, and what’s their impact on the environment; what’s the dominant economic model, and how does it affect other factors; can we assume a mostly peaceful existence, or must we factor in the energy, environmental, and human costs of periodic violent conflicts. (Or, put another way, can a human population riven by such conflicts be sustainable at a desirable level?)

This project would tackle this issue, attempting to come up with a set of models that could be used to estimate capacities under various assumptions. It will also look for more subtle, but nonetheless real factors in human societies that can influence the carrying capacity of a given ecosystem, as well as the world as a whole. I anticipate that one of the most valuable results of this project will be a deeper understanding of all the interacting factors involved in creating a sustainable humanity.

Sustainable economics

The currently dominant economic theories and models are fundamentally inadequate to the task of meshing human economic behavior with the “natural economics” of the world. There are many people working on alternative economic systems that are more responsive both to real human needs and to the way that nature works.

This project would sponsor a series of workshops and other collaborative projects among the various researchers in this area, along with anthropologists and others who can bring a perspective of different economic systems throughout history. A possible result would be a set of consensus models; more realistically, it should at least be the initial impetus to an ongoing dialogue aimed at informing the practical attempts of communities (and hyper-communities) to create viable economies.

Communities of the future

Nature operates not as a centrally controlled system, but rather in terms of many local communities of life, that interweave to form larger units of communities. The basis for this project is the belief that functional, viable communities will provide an essential foundation to create and maintain a sustainable human population, along with a desire to create a resource to connect existing “future-oriented communities” to each other, help them leverage each others’ strengths, and to capture the experience and best practices of communities as they learn.

Rather than being an academic, prescriptive exercise, this project will begin with the idea that communities already exist that exhibit many, if not all, of the necessary characteristics for long-term sustainability (this includes many indigenous communities with literally thousands of years of experience). The first effort, then, will be to identify and characterize such communities, as a basis for further work. A next step will be to help connect these communities into a network of mutual assistance and learning. A further step will be to create an information base to allow newer communities to benefit from the experiences and learnings of their predecessors. Yet another useful component would be an examination of the proposals of many thinkers based on psychology, anthropology, cybernetics, complex systems, etc., comparing them to the actual practice of the communities studied. This could possibly lead both to improving the theoretical models, and to ways to improve the communities.

Understanding human nature

Is humanity fundamentally violent, or was it a result of replacing earlier matriarchal or egalitarian cultures with male-dominated models? Or are there other factors at work, such as the domestication of food crops and the resultant population explosions? Can a viable large society be fundamentally based on trust? On love? In the process of learning to create sustainable societies, it will be tremendously helpful to know what is hardwired into human nature and human cultures, what can be changed, and what viable cultures have existed that differ from todays’ in fundamental ways. Such an understanding will be extremely useful to communities striving to create a strong, resilient, harmonious network of their members

This project will bring together the knowledge, expertise, and ideas of as many as possible of the researchers that have addressed questions like the above, including anthropologists, archaeologists, psychologists, and representatives of a variety of cultures that exist or whose memory still exists in certain people (along with representatives of the communities identified in the above project). As above, the intent is to create a new understanding of the foundations of human nature and cultures, expressed in a living, evolving body of knowledge.

Developing the online resource

Each of the above projects is focused on some particular issue or area of concern. This project, however, is inner-directed, aimed at implementing and enhancing the online resource described in Vision. Among the sub-projects here:

Growing the community: To fulfill its purpose, the site will need to become a well-known and used resource for people involved in all aspects of responding to the crises. This will require work to raise peoples’ awareness of the site, to understand their needs for coordination and support of each other, and to understand the kinds of information pathways and mutual support interactions they’ll need to create a viable community of practice from a diverse population of workers and organizations.
Making connections: As the Final Exam project evolves, we’ll learn of a variety of potentially valuable connections among various projects; part of the vision here is to expand awareness among them of each others’ existence and potential for mutually reinforcing interactions.
Organizing the site: As the site matures, it will need to be become useful for a variety of purposes. This implies providing access in different ways for different users and purposes, allowing content to be indexed and retrieved in a variety of ways, providing mechanisms for collaboration and discussion, and generally keeping it responsive to the needs of the community using it.
Identifying and filling gaps: One of the primary contributions of a synoptic effort such as this, is to identify potentially important issues that aren’t being addressed, potentially useful actions that aren’t being pursued (or that are inadequately funded), new ways of understanding and approaching problems, etc. To do this effectively will take ongoing openness to such potentials, as well as periodic multi-person reviews to look for potential improvements.

Site authored and maintained by Don Dwiggins.
(Note: email address subject to change. Check back here if you get a bounceback.)